Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."